Darfur Needs Peace, Then Justice

Darfur Needs Peace, Then Justice By Savo Heleta Writer-South Africa

The International Criminal Court (ICC) is expected to make a decision whether or not to issue an arrest warrant for Sudan's president, Omar al-Bashir, for the alleged genocide and war crimes committed in Darfur by the end of January or in early February 2009. In July 2008, ICC's chief prosecutor, Luis Moreno-Ocampo, filled 10 charges against al-Bashir—three counts of genocide, five of crimes against humanity, and two of murder.

The ICC accuses the president of Sudan of orchestrating a campaign in Darfur since 2003 that has killed 35,000 people, while at least 100,000 died through starvation and diseases, and 2.5 million people were forced to flee their homes.Indicting al-Bashir in the midst of the conflict in Darfur could shatter all hopes for peace, radicalize many in the country, and disrupt the implementation of the peace agreement which ended two decades of fighting between north and south Sudan.Arrest warrant for president al-Bashir is very likely to radicalize many in Sudan, escalate the conflict in Darfur.Diplomatic Efforts In 2005, the United Nations Security Council adopted "Resolution 1593" which referred the Darfur conflict to the prosecutor of the ICC.The International Criminal Court has jurisdiction over crimes under international law committed on the territory or by nationals of member states.

Even though Sudan has not joined the ICC, the crimes committed in the country or by its nationals can still be prosecuted by the Court as the case is referred by the UN.According to the International Herald Tribune, since the ICC prosecutor filled charges against al-Bashir, Sudan has lobbied its allies and the members of the UN Security Council to put diplomatic pressure on the Council to "invoke Article 16 of the ICC Statute which allows the Council to suspend the ICC prosecutions in any case for a period of 12 months that can be renewed indefinitely."As a result of this lobbying, the African Union and Arab League have asked the UN to freeze the case against Sudan's president, claiming that his prosecution would be a threat to peace and security in Darfur. Similarly, Liu Guijin, China's envoy to Darfur, said Chinese government, the biggest investor in Sudan and the buyer of most of country's oil, calls for the case to be postponed as an arrest warrant for al-Bashir would have a negative impact on the Darfur conflict and prospects for peace.End of al-Bashir?This is the first time the ICC has filled charges against a sitting head of state.

The chief prosecutor believes he can prove that Omar al-Bashir and his government have "masterminded and implemented a plan to destroy in substantial part the Fur, Masalit and Zaghawa groups in Darfur on account of their ethnicity."The ICC prosecutor, Moreno-Ocampo, argues that an indictment would be "the end of president al-Bashir. It would have such a destabilizing effect on domestic politics that he would not be able to hold onto power."However, considering the fact that al-Bashir is Sudan's president for 20 years and has remained in power despite numerous wars, rebellions, and political and financial crises, it is hard to believe that he would step down without a fight.Having backing of the ruling National Congress Party, which claims it is "ready for confrontation with the whole world to defend" him, and counting on support of powerful friends and allies around the world who depend on Sudan's oil for their economic development, it does not come as a surprise that al-Bashir firmly believes he would be untouchable if the ICC decides to prosecute him for the alleged crimes committed in Darfur.Peace or Justice First in Darfur?René Blattmann, the second vice-president of the International Criminal Court, said between peace and justice in Darfur, "justice comes first."The chief prosecutor of the ICC, Luis Moreno-Ocampo, agrees with the notion that justice comes first, adding that "there can be no political solution, no security solution, and no humanitarian solution [in Darfur] as long as the alleged war criminals remain free in Sudan."

It seems that the ICC judges and prosecutors do not care if their actions prevent the upcoming peace process from commencing. A possible arrest warrant for Omar al-Bashir would certainly disrupt the current efforts to organize new talks to end the six-year-long Darfur conflict which are planned to take place in Qatar in the coming months.If charged for war crimes and genocide, al-Bashir and his government would have little or no reason to negotiate peace. This could backlash in Darfur and continue suffering of millions.Indictment would have a destabilizing effect on domestic politics that he would not be able to hold onto power."Effects in Darfur and Sudan If the ICC judges decide to issue an arrest warrant for president al-Bashir, this is very likely to radicalize many in Sudan, escalate the conflict in Darfur, and disrupt the implementation of the north-south peace agreement.Tensions have been growing in Sudan since Moreno-Ocampo asked the ICC judges to indict al-Bashir and the signs of regime's radicalization are already there.

On January 14, the leader of opposition Popular Congress Party, Hassan al Turabi, was arrested by the Sudanese authorities after he publicly called on president to surrender to the International Criminal Court and save the country from international isolation and possible sanctions.Sudanese security officials recently warned that western nationals residing in the country could be targeted by radical groups if the ICC issues an arrest warrant for president al-Bashir. The UN officials fear that the United Nations missions in Sudan and Darfur could also be targeted as the UN Security Council referred the Darfur conflict to the International Criminal Court.Over the past months, the representatives of the Justice and Equality Movement (JEM), currently the most powerful Darfur rebel group, have claimed that the JEM is preparing for attacks on the government forces in Darfur and across the country. In May 2008, the JEM forces mounted an attack on the Sudanese capital, the first attack by Darfur rebels outside the province. In the aftermath of the attack, the JEM leader, Khalil Ibrahim, said that this attack was "just a rehearsal for the attacks to come, and we will continue to attack till we change this regime.

"It is very possible that the Justice and Equality Movement would use the moment when the ICC indicts Sudan's president for alleged genocide and war crimes in Darfur to launch new attacks.Sudan's first vice president and the president of autonomous southern Sudan, Salva Kiir, recently spoke out against the ICC case against al-Bashir and its possible fallouts in the country. Kiir warned that the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) which ended the two-decades-long civil war between the north and south Sudan would be in jeopardy if the president is indicted.Under the CPA, national elections are to take place in Sudan no later than July 2009. An indictment of al-Bashir by the International Criminal Court could end all hopes of holding free elections in the country. Furthermore, the southerners fear that a referendum on self-determination for the south, scheduled for 2011 under the CPA, could be in danger if the ICC judges decide to proceed with their case against president Omar al-Bashir.Six years since the Darfur conflict began, peace seems distant.

It is estimated that about 200,000 people have so far died in the conflict from fighting, diseases, and starvation. The UN and aid agencies estimate that over two million Darfurians, out of the population of about six million, are living in refugee camps.Justice is very important for the victims, post-conflict reconciliation, and the future of Darfur and Sudan. However, the aim of the international community must be to first bring peace to Darfur and then punish the perpetrators of war crimes and crimes against humanity.

Savo Heleta is the author of "Not My Turn to Die: Memoirs of a Broken Childhood in Bosnia" (March 2008, AMACOM Books, New York) and a postgraduate student in Conflict Transformation and Management at Nelson Mandela Metropolitan University in Port Elizabeth, South Africa.

Savo can be reached at: savo AT savoheleta dot com.

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