21 August, 2008

The Road To Hell Is Paved With Good Intentions

The Somaliland Electoral Commission (NEC) announced recently that it would begin voter registration process sometime in October and will complete it in 45 days despite the fact that the system is fundamentally flawed from the out set and has a long way to go before it is perfect.

One might be forgiven for assuming that the notion behind the voter registration is based on good intentions: to enfranchise the entire voting-age population of Somaliland fairly and reasonably wherever they happen to be in the country. However, that is not what the commissioners have in mind. Rather, their overriding priority is to find ways and means by which to siphon off EU Fund earmarked for the voter registration by compiling a shoddy voter registration record. These are the cold, brutal facts of reality that one must acknowledge.



Given the 45-day process timeframe, the organisational and logistical challenges that the NEC officials face are, by any stretch of the imagination, daunting and will, under no circumstances, allow the officials to conduct and compile a reliable voter registration record that reflects fairness and neutrality. The problem is that, although the NEC often portrays itself as an independent agency, most of the commissioners still remain at the beck and call of Dahir Rayale. There is no dispute about this fact except among the people who rely the government’s media for their information.



The commissioners’ short-term track record in conducting their business is also far from something to be proud of. In the past, they postponed both the presidential and municipal elections in direct collusion with the government. Infact, in April 2008, Rayale had written directly to the NEC ‘to postpone the presidential and local-government elections, scheduled for July and August 2008, to later dates without getting the approval of the opposition political parties’. The commissioners did so willingly and gladly. This is why, Mohammed Youseff, the former chairman of the NEC, decided to resign from the chairmanship. Both KULMIYE and UCID, produced lists of Voter Registration officers illegally selected for Marodi Jeh, Awdal and Sahil regions by the NEC. Yusuf took a back seat simply because the government was aggressively engaged in a lot of arm-twisting behind the scenes. He was quoted as saying in an interview with the BBC Somali Service “ I am under tremendous pressure” without pointing an accusing finger at the government. But it is quite obvious where that “tremendous pressure” was and is still coming from- the government.


The former deputy chairman of the NEC, Mr. Hersi Ali Hassan, bluntly told reporters in April 2008 that “if the government continues to meddle in the election commission’s affairs he would be left with no other alternative but to resign from the commission altogether”. He added “We are being told by the government who is and who is not to be appointed as the commission’s regional and district officers.” according to Somaliland Times.
Mr. Hassan was immediately thrown under the bus. As a result, he has resigned his membership of the NEC altogether.On 3rd August 2008, Mr. Hassan, was arrested in Burao by Rayale’s mukhabarat (intelligence service directly accountable to Rayale) because of his continued whistleblowing activities on the government’s constant meddling in the internal affairs of the NEC. He was outrageously accused of being a member of Al-shabbab- an Islamist insurgency group, labelled as terrorist by the US State Department, that wages war against the Transitional Federal Government of Somalia and the allied Ethiopian forces.



In March 2008, UCID party representative on the NEC board was also temporarily suspended from the commission on grounds that he was not a team player and made ‘a damaging public statements on the commission’s affairs’. He was referred to the president, after five of the UDUB leaning NEC members, voted for his immediate replacement and referred the matter to the president. The parliament rejected the president’s request and reinstated him to serve as a full member on the NEC Board.

Against the backdrop of this unsavoury situation, the NEC will, at best, produce a shoddy or incomplete voter registration list that could result in accusations and counter accusations between the government and opposition parties at a critical time when the country remains in uncharted constitutional territory because the incumbent president has deliberately and calculatedly exceeded the term of his mandate to rule the country, which expired on 15th May 2008. At worst, it could, God forbid, spark civil unrest in Somaliland.



Rayale rubbed his hands with glee on hearing the news that NEC impromptuly decided to commence voter registration in October. He sensed perhaps that there is an opportunity for him to trigger political crises that would create a gridlock situation between the government and opposition parties come the election day in March 2009. He has quickly issued a directive calling for the implementation of this pseudo-voter registration system within the commission’s stated timescale.

Rayale’s ruling party, UDUB, has vested interest in this voter registration process. A senior cabinet minister admitted privately that the registration could not be realistically achieved within the time frame set down by the NEC, unless of course it wants to cut corners, and the president knows that with absolute certainty. However, Rayale wants to use the voter registration process as a vehicle to advance his political ends so as to delay and hinder the presidential election scheduled for March 2009 even though the parties concerned and the parliament categorically stated that anything including the voter registration that would constitute a stumbling block to the presidential election should be removed from the equation.

The problem however is that the parliament has, long ago, lost its influence and power to hold the government to account. So Rayale is truly not concerned about what the parliament may or may not do if he goes out of his way to cross a red line as he did in the past many times. In the eyes of Rayale, the parliament does not exist because there is virtually nothing it can do to bring him to account for his misdeeds. For instance, last week the parliament passed a resolution (44 votes, 1 abstention) in favour of calling for the president to revoke the exclusive monopoly license he has granted to the Saudi millionaire to export livestock from Somaliland. For Rayale it was business as usual; he simply turned a deaf ear on the parliament’s resolution. In a nutshell, the parliament barks loudly but cannot bite.


The election officials believe that 45 days (5 days @ 6 regions plus 15 days of preparatory work) would absolutely suffice to allow them to finalise the registration of voters throughout the country. But let us not forget that these are the same commissioners who, in the past, repeatedly postponed both the voter registration and presidential elections in collusion with the ruling UDUB party. The problem is however further complicated by opposition parties that are willing to stake everything in the expectation that a free and fair election will somehow be held on 29 March 2009 as scheduled. This desperation on the part of the opposition parties seemingly lends credence to this essentially flawed system.

As stated earlier, UDUB, the ruling party, has a vested interest in the voter registration. The leader of UCID, Faisal Ali Warabe, has, more often than not, allied himself with the ruling party, UDUB, rather than KULMIYE. Faisal erroneously believes in his heart of hearts that voter registration will give him a real chance to win the forthcoming presidential election. Apparently, he is oblivious to the fact that the odds had always been and would continue to be heavily stacked against him. If the past is any guide, he has virtually no chance of winning the presidency. Ahmed Mohamoud Silanyo, the leader of the leading opposition party, KULMIYE, is the odd man out here. He jumped on the bandwagon not because he honestly believes that the NEC would conduct a credible, effective and transparent system of registration of voters but because he does not want the government to use his criticism or refusal of the voter registration as an excuse to delay the presidential election for a third time. Furthermore, he does not want to incur the wrath of the commissioners by criticising them even though he is fully aware that they are disproportionately inclined toward UDUB.

Silanyo’s gamble to give Rayale the benefit of the doubt yet again is fraught with high risks. He knows that Rayale is a serial offender and inveterate liar who could not be trusted to honour his promise. There is no guarantee that the election will go ahead as scheduled in March 2009 in spite of the fact that the legitimacy of Rayale’s incumbency is questionable. How a president whose legitimacy is questionable can allow his commissioners [I mean commissioners who take instructions from Rayale] to produce legitimate results is beyond anyone’s comprehension.

Nearly two-third of the Somaliland population practices some form of pastoralism, herding camels, sheep and goats and move from one place to another seasonally in search of pasture and water for their herds and any fair-minded individual would readily acknowledge that it is not reasonable to conduct the registration of voters of the entire country in just45 days given the NEC’s lack of proper wherewithal and preparations.
Up until now, there are no ID cards issued to the people. It is therefore extremely hard, if not impossible; in the first place, to establish the identity of those who want to register to vote since not a single individual can produce proof of citizenship. Who will do the screening and how will they distinguish a genuine Somaliland citizen from a non-Somaliland citizen?

It is equally difficult to confirm where one resides since nomads and many urban dwellers for that matter have no roof over their heads. And certainly there is no way to ascertain whether someone has attained the minimum age established by the law in order to be eligible to vote in a public election.



When the officials who are running the voter registration are also disproportionately inclined toward the ruling party, UDUB, and are not properly equipped for this Herculean task, the probability of widespread inefficiency, outright fraud and manipulation of voter registrations are more likely to happen. The moving of registration stations without notice, a lack of registration forms and the registration of so many people who are either under-age or non-citizens, are some of the irregularities that could mar the process. It is an illusion that these insurmountable challenges could be easily resolved within 45 days.



Another major constraint is that certain clans are predominantly urbanised while others are pastoral nomads who move from one place to another. The latter will be heavily disenfranchised by the system.




By funding a fundamentally flawed registration system, the EU will be fully encouraging the disenfranchisement of a broad swath of citizenry who would otherwise have voted in public elections. The system as it stands right now will discriminate against certain segments of the society or will result in the denial of equal access to the political process.

The basic terms and conditions of awarding any grant-aid to anybody, unless of course it is a free money giveaway, is to ensure that the recipient is competent enough and have proper systems in place to carry out the activities and/or services for which the grant is being paid. The EU officials know that the system is flawed and the NEC officials are not up to scratch. Unlike their previous counterparts, the current commissioners have no proper training other than one-off training they had in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. In spite of this, the EU is willing to waste money on the registration system for democracy’s sake irrespective of its shortcomings or how adversely it affects segments of Somaliland citizenry.

Unless there are ulterior motives, it is quite clear that this will defeat the very purpose of advancing the democratisation process in Somaliland.

Perhaps the EU can amend the terms and condition of its grant-aid and use the money to improve the lives of the one million or so city dwellers in Hargeisa who remain unserved with adequate potable water supply rather than supporting a fundamentally flawed system and unwittingly encouraging the illegitimate government of Dahir Rayale to use the voter registration process as an obstacle to hamper the forthcoming presidential election.
The EU must not be a party to reversal of democracy in Somaliland. Jamal Madar
London, United Kingdom

http://samotalis.blogspot.com/

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