Foreigners need to clear the way for the people to solve their growing problems
The Economist
Published: 00:00 October 18, 2011
Image Credit: AFP
Internally displaced women from southern Somalia receive rations from aid agencies in the Howlawad district of Mogadishu on Friday. Tens of thousands have already died in Somalia in recent months, according to the UN’s Food and Agricultural Organisation (FAO).
Somalia has been a mess for two decades. The most recent functioning government was swept away in 1991. The state has failed utterly and rival militias vie for control. A drought earlier this year quickly turned into a full-blown famine that has hit 4 million people and already killed tens of thousands.
Somalia's misery also threatens the outside world. Unconstrained by a coastguard or police force, growing numbers of Somalis are turning to piracy, threatening foreign seamen and costing the rest of the world anything from $7 billion (Dh25.7 billion) to $12 billion a year — including extra spending on fuel, security and $400 million in ransom payments over the past five years.
A solution to Somalia's problems will not be found on the high seas or on the country's barren farmland, but only in the capital, Mogadishu. A thorough political settlement, rather than yet another piecemeal fix, is needed to end its civil war — and, by backing one faction, foreigners are not helping.
Despite all the fighting, no armed group has been able to gain a nationwide victory and hold power for long enough to secure the country's trade routes and establish patrols in its coastal waters. With this in mind, Western and African governments have over the past few years propped up a transitional federal government, which they hope can eventually take charge. It is led by Somalis but protected by African Union troops, who recently won back control of the capital from Al Shabab, a ruthless militia.
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This approach, however well-intentioned, is bound to fail. The transitional government is seen by many Somalis as simply another militia, and a foreign-backed one at that. Government leaders mostly come from a single faction in the civil war. They have not helped their cause by being corrupt.
Perhaps half of all the money going into Somalia is embezzled. Some senior government leaders were robber barons before they donned state robes. Others find dusty, dangerous Mogadishu so disagreeable that they spend much of their time abroad.
Outside powers have repeatedly tried to impose order on Somalia — twice militarily: America invaded in 1992 and Ethiopia in 2006. Both campaigns, which failed to establish a national authority, succeeded only in turning the vast majority of Somalis against any form of foreign intervention.
The solution must come from Somalis themselves. They have done it once before. In 2000 Islamists formed the Union of Islamic Courts, a national federation of sharia jurists, that had at least some legitimacy and held large swathes of territory, until it was overthrown six years later with foreign help.
Fighting piracy
The emergence of another national movement is still Somalia's best hope of escaping misery. Though the country's clans are intense rivals, Somalia has few differences of ethnicity, language or religion and is among the most homogeneous places in Africa.
But the transitional government is standing in the way, protected by its foreign backers. It would be much better if the Americans, the Europeans and the African Union encouraged the government to bring in more of its opponents, including the Islamists. Otherwise there will never be peace.
That would put the main onus on the Somalis to sort out their own affairs. But the West can still do things to help on both piracy and famine. International naval patrols in the Indian Ocean have reduced the success rate of pirates, but the fight against piracy should be extended to their godfathers, who finance hijackings and rake off much of the ransom.
More pirates must also be prosecuted rather than, as now, set free at times after being caught — which calls for new laws, courts and prisons in nearby states.
More governments should be encouraged to join (or pay for) naval patrols. South Africa and Nigeria, Africa's biggest foreign-policy beasts, contribute little, even though piracy has crept towards their shores.
International donors have dispatched almost $800 million of famine-aid so far this year. After some hesitation, neighbouring Kenya has allowed in hundreds of thousands of refugees.
That work must continue along with economic development designed to help local communities sustain themselves. Fishing and livestock exports could be supported. Turkey has set a worthwhile example by boosting trade.
Given the scale of Somalia's misery, all this will no doubt sound woefully unambitious. But experience has shown that trying anything more in Somalia will achieve even less.
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