What Would A Further Delay In The Presidential Election Mean To Somaliland?

THE SOMALILAND INDEPENDENT SCHOLAR'S GROUP

4^TH POSITION PAPER

 (26 July, 2009; Hargeysa, Somaliland)

I. Introduction

On 17^th of July 2009, a group of 12 Somaliland scholars met at Haraf Restaurant to discuss the question: What would a further delay in the Presidential Election mean to Somaliland? The meeting was sponsored by the Social Research and Development Institute (SORADI). It was moderated by its Director, Dr. Mohamed Fadal. The Somaliland Independent Scholar's Group (ISG) members are all long-term participants of Somaliland rebuilding and democratization process, who are considered to be highly competent to provide an objective analysis and strategy to address the issues at hand. The ISG members are: Amina Mohamoud Warsame (Executive Director of NAGAAD); Abdilkadir H Ismail Jirde (Ex-Deputy Speaker and Member of Parliament- now travelling), Shukri H. Ismail (Former National Electoral Commissioner and Member of African Democracy Forum and Chair of Candle Light); Ibrahim Jama Ali -Rayte (Member of Parliament and Lawyer), Fawsi Aw Yoonis (Somaliland Lawyer's Association); Abdi Ahmed Nour (Forum for Peace and Governance-FOBAG), Bobe Y. Duale (Research Coordinator, APD), Haroon H Ahmed Qulumbe (ActionAid), Jafar Mohamed Gadaweyne (SONSAF); Mohamed Hassan Ibrahim (Researcher-APD), Suad Ibrahim Abdi (Researcher-APD); Wais Muse (Executive Director of Samatalis Coalition of Human Rights)), Dr. Mohamed Fadal, Director of (SORADI);Muse Abdi Elmi (U. of Hargeisa; Dean Academic Affairs)). Associate scholars include: - Abdi-shakur Sh Ali-Jowhar (Psychiatrist and political analyst: warkamaanta.com).

II. Taking Stock of Our Progress

We need to remind ourselves that the Somaliland Presidential elections were supposed to take place on May 2008. We are around 14 months off course. This creates an air of uncertainty hanging over Somaliland development, especially over investment opportunities and international partnership, both of which expect to deal with a government, which has clear mandate from the electorate. In spite of the above difficulties, we still need to minimize the damage and not to lose sight of our main goal to hold free, fair and peace elections and preferably on scheduled date of 27 September 2009. If, however, for reasons to be discussed below the elections could not be held on time, we should also acknowledge that, we tried hard and that it is because of primarily lack of enough time to complete crucial requirements, and to some extent lack of political will from our side to take some hard decision on time. 

We are learning that successful elections require tremendous amounts of work, national cohesion and effective cooperation among key stakeholders; but above all else also allocation of adequate resources both human and financial. We achieved most of the groundwork preparation for holding free, fair and peaceful elections:

1.            We accomplished the most difficult task of registering our voters, despite the technical difficulties we still need to overcome to make the results useful.

2.            We managed two extensions of the President and Vice-President's (P&VP) terms of office. These were serious challenges, but we successfully overcame them, albeit temporarily.

3.            The political parties have agreed on and signed together a comprehensive election Code of Conduct designed not only to boost trust among key stakeholders but also to compensate for the lack of adequate legal regime to cover various aspects of the election process.

4.            We allocated our share (25%) of the election budget. We should remember that most post-conflict countries receive financial support to hold their early elections from the international Donors, which helps them stand on their feet.

III. What are the outstanding issues, which can delay the Presidential Elections on 27th September, 2009?

Each one of the following three outstanding issues can cause the election to be delayed:

1. The NEC Impasse is not solved and money is not released  

The Donor's demand is to reform NEC in order for them to make the money available. Three basic questions need to be asked here: 1) Do we need the money? 2). Can we reform NEC?  And 3) are the above actions necessary for the holding of free, fair and peaceful election? The ISG answers all of them in the affirmative.

The Somaliland political circles have been on the record so many times to have expressed doubts on the competence, neutrality and financial transparency of some Commissioners. Our media conveyed the public uncertainty of whether the present Commission is up to task of holding a successful election. At one point, a member of the Cabinet has raised the alarm that "These seven men in the Commission will cause us to fight among ourselves". The Donors are not only cognisant of this public concern, but have also observed the performance of many Commissioners more closely during the Voter Registration process. Therefore, they have come to the conclusion that with such a sensitive undertaking as the presidential election, there has to be a more competent NEC in place, which has also the trust of all parties. The Group sees it as a sound decision and in the interest of the Somaliland people.

The Independent Scholar's Group has discussed the impasse on NEC reform during their last meeting and noted the following key points:

a.       The Commission membership is an honorary position and not a career employment won through competition and therefore the credibility and trust towards the individual member is paramount. If a Commissioner loses the trust of one of the key stakeholders, it should be incumbent upon such a Commissioner to resign honourably and in good faith, before his name and that of the institution are tarnished. If some of the Commissioners are publicly accused of improprieties, and do not resign in good faith to also have a chance clear their name, the national leadership should apply the appropriate laws such as Article 13 of the Election Law. In this backdrop, the ISG commends UCID Partie's role in the affair and regrets the way both political parties, Kulmiye and UDUB handled the affair.

b.       The Group further noted that the lack of political will from the side of the leaders to take immediate action on the matter, is not only eating away the preparation time of the election, but also is not solving the impasse in any way and hence the growing question whether the election could be hold on the scheduled date of 27 September 2009.  The ISG ultimately looks to the Honourable President of Somaliland Republic to take action to save the election date and to spare the people from the predictable consequences of delayed elections.

2. The Final Voter List not available

The Server is trying to make sense of the "garbage we put in it". It is a technical matter, and with time and perseverance, we believe the problem could be solved. Voter Registration is a very important achievement of our democratization process as well as the realization of our aspiration to hold the freest, fairest and most peaceful presidential election in the region. It is an important pillar of our efforts to build sustainable peace and justice in this country. The Voter Registration process should not be viewed as a one-off task. On the contrary, we are getting a data base, personal identification cards and a dynamic system of citizens' continued registration, which we can build on and improve for many years to come. We are confident that, there will be a Final Voter Registration List produce for this election. However, we should remember it is not the only factor on the table that can delay the election.

3. The Election Preparation Time Squandered  

Our main enemy here is time. Stakeholders can discuss and dialogue as long as they please; they can dodge the decision to reform NEC as long as they want; but they have to always remember that the clock is ticking. The preparation time needed for the election, according to NEC, is minimum 2.5 months or 75 days. Every day which passes, starting from 15 July, is chipping away days from the planned time before the election date. Therefore, if the key stakeholders do not finish their negotiations soon and agree on a new election date, there is not going to be much time left in the time-account and therefore, we will need to buy more time and move backwards towards the year 2010. If, however, the stakeholders reach an agreement on key issues within the first two weeks of August, 2009, then we need to buy only four weeks.

IV. Possible Scenarios, if the 27 September Election Date is missed?

If above the deadline is missed, the most critical challenge to face is to address the  expiring term of the President and Vice-President, which was extended until 29 October, 2009. The Group identified in their last discussion three scenarios to address the P&VP- term expiry issue:

1.      The Further Extension Scenario

If the key stakeholders start to proactively put the issue of an inevitable delay on the table and start negotiating for the closest date possible for elections to be held, then the scenario of short-term extension of the P&VP terms shall be an attractive one. If within the first two week of August, this process is agreed upon, then the new election date could be set to maximum of within two months after September. The opposition parties, to go along with this, will need to take into consideration the following factors:

1. The NEC issue is resolved and therefore the Donor money is released.

2. The election date is set to be within the next two months after 27 September, 2009.

3.  Be appreciative that the stakeholders have already overcame so many hurdles together through consensus. They achieved tangible results and through that recovered some of the sapping confidence of the public.

The ISG considers this as the best case scenario, if factors (i) and (ii) are achieved.

2.      The Care-taker Government Scenario

If factors (i) and (ii) are not achieved then, the next best scenario on the table becomes, to form a Care-taker Government, which leads the country to hold the Presidential Elections. How such a Care-taker Government will look like should come out from wider consultations.

3. The Worst Case Scenario: The Year 2010

In the year 2010, the election of the House of Representatives is going to be due and the Guurti's four year controversial extension is coming to an end. The Local Council elections are already overdue for three years. If the Presidential election is pushed towards the year 2010, we will have four due elections in our hands and all the good and the ugly that go with them. Is this an opportunity for Somaliland or a catastrophe? Whatever it is, we need to make a very serious thinking of where all this is leading us. We also need to reflect and learn from our past, both far and near.

V. Conclusion

The Independent Scholar's Group urges the Executive Branch, the two Houses of Parliament, the national Political Parties and the National Electoral Commission to act proactively and start preparing for the possibility of elections not holding on the 27^th September, 2009. It is incumbent upon the leadership of these national institutions to appoint a National Commission to investigate the humiliating failures, which Somaliland has suffered in preparing for this election; to find out what went wrong, who is accountable for it and how to learn from it. They have to remember that there is a multitude of young, male and female aspiring future politician in the society, who want their future to be secured and not squandered by the present generation of leaders. Further more, the above leaders should realize that they are not accountable only to the Somaliland people, but also to the peace-loving world community.