Selecting the Next Prime Minister on Quota or on Merit

Selecting the Next Prime Minister 

on Quota or on Merit

By Faisal Roble 

A careful and prudent selection of the next Prime Minister (PM) to replace the now ousted Mr. Omar Abdi Rashiid, who was qualified for the position on the mere basis of the supremacy of the 4.5 formula, may give him a lasting legacy, an element his administration acutely lacks.

The ousted PM, more known due to the name recognition of his late father, President Abdirashiid Ali Sharmarke, has been a dismal disappointment in the execution of his duties.  He was the least effective of any office holder that the public has seen so far since the down fall of the Barre government in 1991. 

His selection was not properly vetted and evaluated whether  he, as an individual, has ever ran an office, managed large number of employees, or did have a long resume depicting a wide range of political or professional experience.  

As a matter of fact, besides an employment at a lower level with international organizations in the Sudan, he was absent from the circles of Somalia's bourgeoning foreign-based opinion makers, or from those circles who have been active in the resolution of the nation's intractable political and social problems.  His professional experience was indeed below threshold required for such an office.

Yet, he could easily emerge as the most qualifying person: (1) because he comes from the Darood clan, and, therefore, can throw a legitimate claim on the position; and (2) he comes from the Majeerteen clan which is supposedly the most powerful sub clan within the Darood conglomerate that always get the lion's share.  It seems that the combination of these two factors put him ahead of any potential candidate.

The most often talked approach to the pending selection of the new PM by President Sharif is one based on the strict interpretation of the so-called 4.5 formula. The 4.5 formula stipulates that all executive and legislative offices of Somalia's Transitional Federal Government (TFG) would be divided strictly on the basis of "perceived" strength and numbers of what is aggregated to 4.5 clan conglomerations.  

This formula, despite the absence of any credible census in the last 35 years life of this troubled nation state, strictly mandates that policy makers, particularly the president of the nation, implement the provisions of this article or formula, especially when filling up positions in the executive branch, the PM position included.

Notwithstanding this formula's erroneous logic, the top positions in the presidency and the PM position will always go in an alternative manner to the two largest groups – Darood and Hawiye.  In practice, the Darood share is limited to going to a member of the Harti association, preferably the Majeerteen clan, and that of the Hawiye is narrowed to the Hiraab sub clan. 

Therefore, there is a wide speculation that the secretly guarded selection of the next PM by President Sheikh Sharif and his inner circle, most of who hail from the circles of religious grouping of yesterday's Islamic Courts Union (ICU), would choose another Darood from the Majeerteen clan.  

That kind of imprudent selection, however, would not have the desired effect on the political and social ills of the nation beyond the fifteen seconds of fame precipitated by headline news, plus some largesse to be embezzled once such a person is chosen.   

Most of the country's residents and those in the Diaspora would probably say "same old, same all." This adage being expressed by Somalis is akin to a strong affirmation that the 4.5 outlook is nothing but a zero-sum game solution to Somalia's lineage-based business of governance, which, to begin with, is in turn the source of all problems.

A radical move away from the 4.5 to a merit-based selection of the next prime minster would do several things to Somali politics: (1) For the future, it would free the hands of and open up doors of opportunities for future presidents to deviate from the dictates of this zero-same game; (2) It would give this sitting president to pick a qualified individual who: (a) has the right education; (b) political experience; (c) long and proven professional record; (d) has managed large and complex projects in large systems; (e) proven record of community outreach and personal management; (f) someone who has not committed atrocities in any way or shape for the last 30 years of the nation's history.  

So far, reports from Mogadishu suggest that Hussein Khalif Haji Jama and Abdulqadir Sheikh Ali Dini both from Puntland are heavily lobbying at Vila Somalia, in Mogadishu. The professional history of these individuals as reported on Garowe Online is thin.

But other names that have been publicly floated meet, if not all, most of these criteria.  Hussein Abdi Halane, who has worked for several International development organizations, is gifted with keen sense of community outreach, and has the capacity and the potential to be a consensus builder, as well as enjoys deep roots to the donor community, is an attractive choice.
  
Joining him in this group is the young and upcoming leader, Bashir Nuur Loyan, who holds a Ph.D. in the Sciences, currently working for a large international company, would bring to the ticket a badly needed energy.  

Whomever the president selects would not bring radical change to the policies of this administration that has been so far ineffective.  But moving away from the 4.5, which is in essence a racist quota system would give this president a legacy that he so badly needs.

Faisal Roble 
E-Mail:fabroble@aol.com
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