Wikileaks on Somaliland and its recognition.

US IMPROVING RELATIONS WITH SOMALILAND

(C/NF) Turning to Somaliland, A/S Frazer noted the recent visit of
Somaliland President Dahir Rayale Kahin to Washington. While some may
interpret this visit as a sign that the U.S. was on the verge of
formal recognition, A/S Frazer clarified that the United States was
not getting ready to recognize Somaliland, but believed that it was
important to engage with them to ensure regional stability. At the
same time, A/S Frazer said that the United States would not be opposed
to Somaliland independence if it should happen within an AU context.
A/S Frazer said that she had raised the issue with AU Chairperson
Alpha Oumar Konare, who seemed to be placing unrealistic conditions
for addressing the Somaliland issue. The first was that Somaliland
negotiate with the government in Mogadishu, either the TFG or its
successor, regarding its independence, and the second was that there
be a regional consensus on Somaliland's status, neither of which are
likely to happen or result in any clear decisions.

(C/NF) Meles said that Ethiopia's position on Somaliland was the same
as that of the United States, but that the political situation within
the AU was not yet ripe for addressing the Somaliland issue. Meles
said that he met with Rayale upon his return from Washington and urged
him to write to the AU requesting that they identify a timeframe for a
discussion on the Somaliland issue. However, Rayale "messed things up"
by essentially re-sending his previous letter requesting recognition
and membership in the AU, rather than asking for a timeframe for a
discussion on Somaliland. Meles said that, if Somaliland had taken the
route that he suggested, it would have been likely that the issue
could have been addressed soon. However, if the elections for a new AU
Chairperson take place during the AU Summit, Meles said that the next
chairperson is unlikely to be as positive towards Somaliland as
Konare, which will only further delay any discussion of Somaliland.

(C/NF) Meles also noted the complications of the current political
situation inside Somaliland with the delays in preparations for the
municipal and presidential elections. While avoiding any specifics,
Meles said that the clan dynamics in Somaliland were out of balance,
but that it was important to convey to Rayale that he could not rely
on "outside forces" to tilt the balance in his favor. Even if Ethiopia
tried to intervene on Rayale,s behalf, Meles said, the effort would
fail.
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