SOMALIA: Election ruling rings alarm bells in Somaliland

SOMALIA: Election ruling rings alarm bells in Somaliland

HARGEISA, 25 August 2009 (IRIN) - A ruling that Somaliland will hold its
oft-postponed presidential election without a voters' list has prompted
demonstrations, a boycott threat and warnings that the secessionist state's
relative stability is in jeopardy.

Somaliland, which unilaterally broke away from the rest of Somalia in 1991,
is due to go to the polls on 27 September. The poll was originally scheduled
for April 2008.

In late July, President Dahir Riyale Kahin announced that he and the
National Election Commission (NEC) had decided to discard a hi-tech
biometric voters' register that had recently been completed after two years
of work, claiming that computer server problems had generated an unreliable
list. A representative of Interpeace, a Geneva-based organisation that
developed the new system and disputes the extent of the problem, was
abruptly deported.

The two main opposition candidates, Faisal Ali Warabe of the Justice and
Welfare Party and Ahmed Mohamed Mohamoud of the Development and Solidarity
Party, have threatened to boycott the election and refused to even meet
Riyale unless he reconsiders his decision.

For his part, Riyale has ignored a parliamentary order to reinstate the
voters' list, whose suspension the assembly deemed illegal.

The suspension led to demonstrations by opposition supporters, the latest
on 19 August in Hargeisa, the capital, with thousands of people.

"We want to show the president that we are fully committed to holding the
election using the voter registration lists," Mustafe Abdi, one of the
protesters, said.

According to reports from Lasanod, at least 37 individuals have been
arrested since the demonstrations began, including regional officials of the
two opposition parties.

Credibility questions

Yusuf Abdi Gabobe, leader of the Union of Somaliland Journalists, said:
"Everybody in Somaliland is worried about the country's current situation.
If we continue without mediation the situation could worsen and conflict
could arise."

Meanwhile, concern is mounting outside the country. The African Union's
envoy, Nicholas Bwakira, arrived in Hargeisa on 25 August and was scheduled
to meet leaders of all major political parties. His visit follows that of
Ethiopian Deputy Foreign Minister, Tekede Alemu.

Earlier in August, the US government expressed "profound dismay" over the
registration issue. "We believe the list forms a sound basis for use in the
elections scheduled for 27 September. We have directly urged President
Riyale to reconsider his decision," according to a press statement released
in Nairobi.

Timothy Othieno, a regional analyst with the Overseas Development
Institute, a British think-tank, told IRIN that if the minority ruling
United Peoples' Democratic Party (UDUB) went ahead with the election without
the opposition, "they will have no credibility domestically and
internationally and this may lead to instability. The lack of credibility
may lead to pressures within Somaliland for change, which may not be
attractive for Riyale both domestically and internationally."

But he warned even under current circumstances, the election date should be
maintained. "Any further delays will have denied Somalilanders an
opportunity to express themselves through the ballot box. There will never
be a perfect election and a consistent tradition of elections will sort out
these intricacies over time. The point being that Somaliland needs to get
into the habit of having regular elections even if they are not perfect."

Three UK-based organisations invited to coordinate international observers
during the elections have also sounded the alarm. In a statement released on
20 August, Progressio, the Development Planning Unit at University College
London, and Somaliland Focus (UK) expressed "deep concern" at recent
developments and hinted they would pull out.

"We feel that under the current circumstances, the only possible outcome
[of the election] would be seen by a significant proportion of Somalilanders
as lacking legitimacy. We are therefore concerned about whether we are able
to provide the coordination and observation role to which we have been
committed to date, unless the situation changes markedly," they said.

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