BANGKOK (Reuters) - Thousands of former Thai premier Thaksin
Shinawatra's red-shirted supporters plan to rally on Sunday in a
growing challenge to Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva, underlining
Thailand's deep political divisions.
Analysts say the fugitive billionaire's ability to continue to flex
his political muscle while in self-imposed exile signals trouble for
Abhisit's fragile coalition government and is worsening Thailand's
four-year political crisis.
WHAT IS THAKSIN'S STRATEGY?
More big rallies by the red-shirted United Front for Democracy against
Dictatorship (UDD) will turn up the heat on Abhisit as he struggles to
revive the economy and heal social rifts while fending off attacks
from inside and outside his divided six-party coalition.
Analysts say Thaksin's goal is to damage Abhisit's credibility with
claims of illegitimacy and incompetence, while convincing his
supporters he is still a political heavyweight, ready to fight for
democracy and the rights of the rural poor.
"The show is not over yet for Thaksin," said Chanthana
Banprasirichote, a politics professor at Bangkok's Chulalongkorn
University. "The protests could go on for a long time and present more
problems for Abhisit."
WILL ELECTIONS COME SOON?
The "red shirts" continue to demand that Abhisit dissolve Parliament
and call a general election. But with public opinion of him and his
Democrat Party low, or lukewarm at best, such a move at this time
could be political suicide.
The UDD and the pro-Thaksin Puea Thai party look to be gaining
momentum, despite the assumption they would fizzle out after violent
protests in April that damaged their credibility. Abhisit is likely to
stall on elections for as long as possible and try to win over some of
Thaksin's support base.
"He will try build as big a support base with the aim of forming a
government in his own right in the next election," said Jacob Ramsay,
an analyst at Control Risks, an independent, specialist risk
consultancy.
....AND WHAT ABOUT THE "YELLOW SHIRTS?"
The yellow-shirted People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) has stayed
off the streets since its occupation of Bangkok's airports last year,
which stranded more than 200,000 visitors and contributed to a 30
percent drop in tourist arrivals this year.
Despite the failed April 17 assassination attempt on one of its
leaders, Sondhi Limthongkul, the "yellow shirts," who are backed by
the urban middle classes, royalists and the military, have vowed to
hold off on demonstrations. Although out of sight, they still remain a
well-funded and formidable force.
The PAD has formed its own party, the New Politics Party, but analysts
say it is unclear who will vote for it since most PAD backers are
traditionally supporters of Abhisit's Democrats.
(Reporting by Martin Petty; Editing by Jason Szep)
http://www.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idUSTRE57R0MI20090828
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