Somaliland has had a good start in the democratization process when president Rayaale's government had successfully implemented three successive elections (municipality, presidential and the legislature council) to the surprise of its critics, but seems to be retreating back from that process ever since his government had failed to start the ball rolling for the election of the second chamber, the Guurti, which was up for grabs about a few years ago.
When the next step of this process was about to begin i.e. the election of the currently non-elected house of elders, Rayaale's government had started to wobble on this important milestone. Instead of grabbing the bull by the hones and electing new members for the upper House of parliament (the Guurti, or House of Elders), the current Somaliland government headed by Rayaale has opted for the continuation of the status quo, fearing perhaps that their ruling party (Udub) may be outnumbered by the opposition, like they did in the previous house of legislature election, should they go ahead with this election. To avoid a similar drubbing, the government has given the Guurti what they longed for; anther four years in the upper chamber. Sooner or later the Guurti have to return that favour.
Within no time, an unholy alliance and devil's pact was forged between Rayaale's "favouring government" and the "favoured Guurti" when the whole nation was indeed gearing up for the completion of Somaliland democratic process. A new phenomena called "scratch my back and I will scratch yours" i.e. let us look after each others interest had started in earnest. Ever since the incumbent government was humiliated in Somaliland's legislature election whereby the opposition parties have gained more seats than Rayaale's Udub in aggregate, it was always obvious to many Somali Landers that this government was no longer in the mood of venturing out for another election process, at least for sometime.
In April, 2008 when the process for electing a new president was about to start, the Guurti had come to the rescue of Rayaale's ailing government as expected by giving a new lease of life in the form of one year extension in the presidential office. If that was enough upset and irritation for the opposition, the worst was to follow suit. Another extension, this time two more months, was handed to Rayaale's government by its other allies, the National Election Commission in what was dubbed by many as another stay of execution. To make matters even more laughable and absurd, particularly when Somaliland people were about to start casting their ballots and the president himself had resigned to the inevitable and singed a presidential degree for the election to go ahead, another unnecessary and divisive six months extension (another stay of execution) was given to his power hungry government, this time by non other than government's favoured group, the Guurti. What a farce!
In African democracy, the ruling parties always try to hang on to power even if that means bending the rules for their own selfish interests. Rayaale's government, impoverished and shunned by the international community, is no exception.
His government has tried every trick in the book to cling to power (at times by fingertips) by making all kinds of excuses for the delay.
National security, voter registration, surfer problems, terrorism and now the upcoming rainy reason which could interrupt the movements of the voting public are among the chief culprits for the delay of Somaliland's elusive presidential election. If the next presidential election takes place ( a big IF) at the end of September, president Rayaale's government has completed seven years in office, two more years over its sell by date.
When the first extension was announced by the Guurti a few years back, I had posted an article on some Somaliland websites about the issue expressing my dismay at the delay and even predicated that more extensions (or stay of executions) will follow suit.
I am glad I was vindicated by the current events. Why a government that has gone to the polls more than once is scared to death to face the Somaliland electorate this time around? It must have sensed the mood of the electorates who are ready to give the government a bloody nose. Some may answer to this question that the donors have insisted on voter registration before future elections. Others may say that it was agreed by our existing political parties that future elections should not go ahead until all Somaliland electorates were accounted for. In other words until all Somaliland voters are registered. Both answers may be valid to some degree, but the fact of the matter is that Rayaale's government had an ample time to put all these provisions in place before the next election since the agreement between the parties was reached right after the 2003 presidential election.
Rayaale's government knows fully well that when the day of reckoning comes
(Election Day) barring another delay of course, it will lose heavily against the opposition. Even the hard core supporters of the government could not comprehend as to why their beloved government is dithering and scared of the opposition. If the government is doing things right as it often boasts, why is it giving ammunition to the opposition? The further the election is delayed, the more Somaliland voters will smell a rat and leave government's fold in droves.
This government, plagued by corruption, cronyism, nepotism, embezzlement, media harassment, stifling competition, etc, knows its time is up. This is the sole reason why it is dragging its feet and shying away from holding presidential election and others in their allotted time. It was in power for almost a decade without undertaking a single meaningful development project. Not a single road in the capital or elsewhere was paved or repaired during this period, let alone built. Even the main road from Egal airport to the city center is littered with potholes that motorists have to weave and negotiate through.
The excuse always given by the government is that its budget is so small that it is lucky if it feeds its huge military and police forces. Fair enough. But if you spare a few minutes and go through its 2009 budget as thoroughly and brilliantly analyzed by Ali Guled, a CPA from California and a critic of this government, you can see who this government has put its priorities wrong again and again. Wrong allocations have been given to wrong ministries (presidential ministry being one of them as in the earlier budgets), while the most important ones have been given peanuts.
You need to look no further than the lifestyles of the top echelons of Somaliland government, the most impoverished country on earth, to see how this group has amassed a fortune while the rest of the nation is living in abject poverty.
In conclusion, the continuation in office by this government will mean no future developments in the country and more divisions among Somaliland populace, often along tribal lines. The seeds for hatred have already been sown by this government when it curved six more tribal regions from the existing six regions in a country of roughly no more than two million people. A tribal division in Somaliland is rampant and more visible today than when this government had arrived in the scene seven years ago. Somaliland people deserve better administration than Rayaale's inept, inefficient and corruption-plagued government if their aspiration for nationhood is to be realized.
Mohamed F Yabarag
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