Changing Global Politics: Since last November we have experienced massive changes both in world diplomacy and more gravely the world economy. While Obama's victory in the American presidential election will symbolize the renewal of more thoughtful US diplomacy, the financial collapse of major global players and the consequent economic downturn will come to symbolize the demise of the politics of delusional grandeur that was the American bubble of global supremacy epitomized by Bush and co.
The war on terror which defined Bush global ambitions is in tatters partly due to the fiasco that was the Iraq invasion and occupation; and partly due to fiscal hardship caused both by poor economic oversight and budgetary profligacy of Bush's administration.
On the other hand, World Bank and IMF which were slowly becoming irrelevant in global finance have since come back in vogue. The obituary for the UN has suddenly stopped amid the renewed realization of the efficacy of cooperative approach in tackling difficult international issues. At state levels, such countries as Saudi Arabia and other so called emerging markets have gained unprecedented strategic clout with the traditional major players raising the begging bowls.
Regional Politics
Closer at home, Somalia which was written off as a failed state with no consequent importance to the world has re-asserted her importance through the most unlikely albeit notorious characters – the Pirates! These unfriendly guys demonstrated a simple fact that due to geographic accident, Somali is located at the artery of global trade. The deadly mixture of Pirates and hardcore extremism coupled with seeming ineffectiveness of naval patrols on the Somali coast is shaking the reluctant world leaders to the realities of Somalia's desperate problems.
As the US turns its attention to its domestic economic woes, the Ethiopian occupation of Southern Somalia is on its dusk. Without unaccounted cheques to Zenawi, the Ethiopians much publicized bravado is slowly disappearing into the thin air. Their boy, Warlord Abdillahi Yussuf has been retired to his village, the Shabab are on the rise again.
Strategic Importance of Somalia
Given the re-establishment of Somalia's strategic importance and the fear of the emergency of another Afghan which is now more probable given the resurgence of Al-Shabab coupled with the growing adventurism of the pirates, the powers that be are at last persuaded to take effective actions in arresting the two decade of violence and decadence in Somalia. It seems Somalia, thanks to the pirates (!) has turned from a valueless failed state into a strategic country that cannot be allowed to slide into the hands of organized criminals and or unsavory religious hardcore(s).
The pirates reminded the forgetful world that Somalia bestrides one of the most strategic and busy naval commercial routes. Any disruption of this route has ripple effects on business costs across the global. The Gulf countries which had hitherto either ignored or used Somalia as a pawn in their games with Ethiopia (Egypt Nile politics?) have been directly hit by the pirates where is hurts most – disruption of oil transportation and reduced revenue at the Suez Canal.
Somaliland Future
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A mid all these activities at the international arena, Somaliland is in its own idyllic obsession with voter registration and the like. While this is important on its own, it rather pales to insignificance and even becomes a dangerous distraction if it hinders our collective sight and effort in absorbing the significance of the changes in the offing and how they will impact on our future.
Its time any soul who supports the idea of Somaliland's separate identity wakes up to the challenges of the gathering storm. The choices are obvious, stark and will be determinative as the major world powers rush to get rid off the pain in the back that Somalia has become.
Delusion and Excuses
There are number of delusions and self defeating excuses that we have nurtured for quite some times. The delusion includes our assumption that Ethiopia state is a rational entity that vigorously pursues its interest in Somalia and thus by extension Somaliland. This assumption lulls us to the belief that, given its obsessive fear of the re-emergence of a strong united Somalia that will keep the irredentist dreams of Ogadenia alive, be the first country to provide Somaliland with international legitimacy if only to stop such a scenario. The establishment of a representative office in Hargeisa was seen as a demonstration of this.
However, events in Somalia since the conclusion of the Mbagathi peace initiatives suggests to any keen observer that Ethiopia is far from pursuing such ration state interests. Its failed occupation of Mogadishu and the mayhem it created coupled by its unquenchable thirst to cohabit with all sort of unsavory warlords is indicative of an ill thought agenda and pure hatred of Somalis. These irrational policies seek to perpetuate a state of statelessness and chaos in Somalia rather than a demise of powerful central government in Mogadishu. Such irrational policies can be partly attributable to the rent seeking opportunities provided to the current elites in Addis Ababa by the current occupation and the general poor policy development that characterize African dictatorships.
We in Hargeisa should therefore take note of this reality and move beyond expectation of positive diplomatic breakthrough via Addis Ababa. The few passports it grants to our leadership and business elites and the symbolic significance of its trade mission are probably the only facilitative gesture we can get from them.
The other delusion is the general belief that our efforts toward democratization should bring us tangible international support. While these are celebrated by commentators across the globe, only direct interest will command attention. In other words state actors pursue self seeking interests rather than grand ideals of democracy and what have you. As demonstrated in the South, the current interest in Somalia is not stemming from a moral imperative but rather from a commercial and security imperatives. In unpalatable terms, the Pirates have brought the world attention back to Somalia and not a fanciful reconciliation project.
Reframing Our Arguments
What we can learn from this is the urgent need to re-frame our talking points, our arguments for statehood in terms that demonstrate the congruence of Somaliland aspirations for independent statehood with the interests of the neighbouring states in particular and the world in general. We have hitherto based most of our arguments on our legal standing in international law, history of separate statehood, the traumatic history of southern tutelage and our current peace and democratization. This has proved to be inadequate in terms of bring us international legitimacy.
We need to put beef on these skeletal arguments and both the government official and the Diaspora need to reframe their arguments to capture the delusive interest of our audience. We also need a sort of inter-party approach towards our foreign policy. A demonstration of unity of purpose with its inherent synergy will definitely strengthen our bargaining power with the world leadership. The government needs to quickly shake up its unofficial representative and appoint individuals who can actually do something.
The public should be vigilant of fanciful ideas such Somali or Islamic brotherhood, federation and the like sneaking through the back door.
In short its time we stood from our mefrishes, fold the fadhigas, tidy the room put on trousers and face the challenges in the offing. By the way where are Somaliland students especially the university students? Why are they so docile? Are they also busy with khat?
Ahmed Aideed
ahmed.aideed@gmail.com
London
Source: Jamhuuriya.info
http://samotalis.blogspot.com/
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