Engaging Syria? Lessons from the French Experience

INTERNATIONAL CRISIS GROUP - NEW BRIEFING Damascus/Brussels, 15 January 2009: One of Barack Obama’s early moves is likely to be to engage in the kind of regional diplomacy his predecessor shunned, notably by “talking to the enemy”, but how should he engage Syria concretely? Engaging Syria? Lessons from the French Experience,* the latest policy briefing from the International Crisis Group, draws practical lessons for the new U.S. president, while offering creative ideas as to how Paris may consolidate what remains a still tenuous initiative.

“As the Obama administration examines its Syria policy, it could do far worse than reflect on France’s trial run”, says Peter Harling, Crisis Group’s Iraq, Syria and Lebanon Project Director. “Determined to engage in dialogue – but ready to break off if Damascus was uncooperative – creative in approach and with clearly defined objectives, Nicolas Sarkozy has known how to seize unexpected opportunities when they presented themselves”. The experiment is ongoing, its outcome still uncertain, as France looks for further advances with regard to the present Gaza crisis, the Israeli-Arab conflict generally, Lebanese sovereignty, counter-terrorism and the Iranian nuclear dossier. It will become fully convincing, and therefore relevant in American eyes, only if it clearly demonstrates Syria’s capacity to act as a credible partner promoting regional stability. Already, however, there are important lessons in Paris’s energetic, often impulsive, at times contradictory approach.

A long hiatus in bilateral ties – a common feature of President Chirac’s and President Bush’s tenures – both sides will require a significant period of mutual observation. Quick results, in other words, ought not to be anticipated. Patience during negotiations is as important as swiftness when opportunity strikes. Secondly, a successful relationship must be based on clear and steady objectives, not endless demands. There should be no hesitation to halt dialogue if events warrant, while maintaining communication to allow quick reaction at the right moment. For the new U.S. team, this means immediately reciprocating positive steps and penalising negative ones. Finally, though those in the U.S. who bank on a Syrian-Iranian split will be disappointed, Damascus’s willingness to normalise ties with France suggests it wishes to diversify its strategic alliances, not reverse them.

Washington should promote this trend, which would dilute Iran’s importance to Syria and facilitate a gradual reconfiguration of its alliances. “Ultimately, the Franco-Syrian rapprochement will become untenable if the U.S. is not drawn in”, warns Robert Malley, Crisis Group Middle East Director. “If Washington, after sterile negotiations, were to return to a policy of pressure and isolation, it would become harder for Paris to go it alone”.

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