Now, with simultaneous transitions underway within the Israeli government, the U.S. government, and the Jerusalem municipal government, the issue of Jerusalem is becoming more and more delicate, tense, and potentially explosive. For the Israeli settlers in East Jerusalem, the current situation represents a "perfect storm" of conditions under which they can create – and are creating – new facts on the ground that could later make it difficult if not impossible to resolve the Israeli Palestinian conflict peacefully. We are already witnessing a serious deterioration in Jerusalem, and we fear that more moves are to come.
The lesson of years of experience in Jerusalem – re-taught over and over but somehow never learned – is that it is much easier for Israel, with the support and urging of the international community, to prevent settlers from establishing facts on the ground in Jerusalem in the first place than it is for Israel to try to "undo" these facts on the ground. Failing such preventative action, the government of Israel is rarely able to muster the political will to "undo" settler facts on the ground, and where they do so, or try to do so, the political price is much higher.
Many people say that Jerusalem, which is a potent symbol for both Palestinians and Israelis, is the heart of the conflict. However, Jerusalem can also be the key for the resolution of the conflict, when the two sides decide to share the city, and make it two capitals for two peoples. It is vital that all parties act responsibly to protect the city and prevent settlers from transforming it into the ultimate obstacle to achieving Israeli-Palestinian and Israeli-Arab peace.
The "Perfect Storm" for the Settlers
Several elements combine to make the situation in Jerusalem much more dangerous these days, and to make it ideal for settlers to seek to force their agenda without fear of challenge or repercussions:
1. Israeli government transition: The upcoming national election in Israel, scheduled for February 2009, means that, in the interim, there is no credible, empowered national government with the necessary authority, ability, or political will to deal with in Jerusalem.
2. The Israeli Election campaign: With accusations already flying that one or another party or candidates will "betray" Jewish interests in the Jerusalem, Jerusalem is already a central rallying cry in this election cycle. No party or candidate will say or do much, if anything, that could make them more vulnerable on this issue, knowing that on election day they would almost certainly pay a high political price for having done so. Moreover, for some of the political parties, namely the Israeli right, another dispute about Jerusalem or even another round of violence in Jerusalem, can play an important role in promoting there agenda. Such disputes and violence always serve the interests of those who oppose peace.
3. U.S. government transition: The transition in the US administration means that there is no authority in Washington to object to settler actions in Jerusalem, and if such objections are made, there is the impression in Israel that they are irrelevant. Moreover, the absence of leadership from Washington makes it harder for the international community to set an agenda for the political process in the Middle East, including in Jerusalem.
4. Jerusalem municipality transition: On a smaller scale, the transition in the Municipality of Jerusalem, where a new mayor was elected on November 11th, leaves the city in limbo, with the new mayor – who was elected on a platform that included blatant pandering to settler groups and interests – is presently working to form a coalition government of his own.
Settler organizations are capitalizing on these conditions to intensify their efforts to create facts on the ground in east Jerusalem. They are doing this with and without the assistance of elements of the Israeli government, and with and without legal authorization.
These efforts represent a direct and immediate threat to the two-state solution. Some of the facts on the ground that are being pursued could make a peaceful, two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict impossible by making it impossible to achieve any resolution in Jerusalem.
These settler actions also represent a direct and immediate threat to security and stability inside Jerusalem, threatening to set fire to the city. The settlers reckless actions, and the failure of the Israeli government to respond, could spark violent reactions and retaliations that could spread far beyond the specific areas of the city targeted by the settlers.
These settler actions represent a direct and immediate threat to efforts to promote peace. Destabilization and violence in Jerusalem can dramatically impact Israeli might public opinion and hurt the chances for a government of peace to be elected.
Troubling developments in the last few weeks in Jerusalem:
• November 5 – at the day which all the public attention was on the elections in the US, the Jerusalem municipality destroyed six Palestinian homes in East Jerusalem, leaving 31 people homeless. The demolitions sparked violent confrontations between the police and the residents, and some Palestinians were injured.
• November 9 – At the day of the Quartet Metteing in Sharm A-Sheikh, the Al-Kurd family was forced out of its home in Sheikh Jarrah, in East Jerusalem, for the expansion of the settlement of a group of settlers that took over some homes in the midst of the Palestinian neighborhood.
The Tent of Al-Kurd family, Sheikh Jarrah Silwan demolition Nov. 5
• November 18 – The Israeli Police confiscates loudspeakers of a mosque in Zur Baher because of complaints of Jewish neighbors in the adjacent neighborhood regarding the loud noise coming from the Mu'azin calling for prayer every day.
• November 18 – One Palestinian home was demolished in the East Jerusalem neighborhood of Issawiya.
• November 19 - Infrastructure work re-started for the planned "Tolerance Museum" in West Jerusalem, on the site of an historic Muslim cemetery.
• November 27 – The Israeli Police arrests 20 teenagers (aged 14-15) from their homes in Silwan, taking them to an investigation in the police headquarter.
• December 3 - The Jerusalem municipality destroyed another Palestinian home in Silwan, exactly when many of the residents were demonstrating in front of the Municipality building against the house demolitions.
Potential acts that might take place and set the fire:
• Like the al-Kurd family, which was evicted from its home November 9th, some 26 Palestinian families in Sheikh Jarrah are living under the threat of immediate eviction. Nobody knows when it will happen. If evicted, the settlers will take over a large area in this Palestinian neighborhood, located in the heart of East Jerusalem, and complete a belt of Jewish contiguity through the neighborhood up to Mount Scopus, establishing facts on the ground that could make it impossible to have a peaceful resolution in Jerusalem.
• The police headquarter in Ras El-Amud, which was evacuated by the police (who moved to new settler-financed facilities in E1) as part of an agreement with the settlers, is currently standing empty. It is anticipated that settlers might attempt to move into the site, possibly in the next few weeks.
• There are at least another 87 demolition orders in Silwan ("the Bustan") that the Israeli authorities are keen to execute in order to establish in the place a national and historical park.
• The East Jerusalem Development Company (PAMI) is planning to undertake major renovation work in the streets of Silwan, a Palestinian neighborhood adjacent to the Old City, in which an Israeli settlement with some 300 settlers live. This work threatens to harm the fabric of life in the neighborhood, and could cause irreversible damage to the Palestinian population. The residents of Silwan are opposing the work, and approached PAMI in many ways, and recently even filed a petition in court through the Association for Civil Rights in Israel (ACRI), in order to prevent the work. However, the company is still proceeding with the project, and on November 20, 2008 published another notification in the press regarding the beginning of project.
• There are many other threats of new construction or new settlements (including formal plans that have been filed and that are moving through the approval process). Some involve projects located in or near the Holy Basin (the visual basin of the Old City) and close to the Temple Mount; others are for projects furthering other parts of east Jerusalem. It is very hard to predict which of the many plans of the settlers will be realized next.
See an article in the New York Times
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