Picture posted by Samotalis: Obama Kenyan family.Looking back at Barack Obama's election victory on Tuesday, historians will speak of his eloquence, his ability to inspire a new generation of voters and widespread voter anger at an unpopular president, a lingering war and a dysfunctional government in Washington.
But to understand how the Illinois senator broke open a close race for the White House, all you have to do is look back to the week after Sept. 15, when Republican presidential nominee John McCain responded to the cascading collapse of the financial sector by declaring that he "still" believed "the fundamentals of our economy are strong."
In the following days, the Arizona senator and running mate Sarah Palin committed a series of political blunders that doomed their campaign. McCain temporarily suspended his campaign amid negotiations over a Wall Street bailout plan, momentarily threatened to skip the first presidential debate and stood up late-night TV host David Letterman. The damage was compounded by Palin's painful interview with CBS anchor Katie Couric, when the Alaska governor tried to bolster her foreign policy bona fides by declaring that anyone could see Russia from Alaska.
"In that moment of crisis, Barack looked like a leader and McCain blinked," said Simon Rosenberg, president of NDN, a new-generation Democratic group. "(McCain) hurt himself terribly that week and the bloom came off the Palin rose."
That dramatic week, which culminated in the first McCain-Obama debate, thrust the economy into the forefront of the election — and overshadowed the Arizona Republican's attempts to make experience and proven leadership the keys to a GOP victory.
"The economy was always a driving force" in the 2008 election, conceded Mike DuHaime, McCain's political director. The Wall Street collapse provided "an exclamation point"
As the stock market tanked, McCain was "jumping all over the place," said Democratic strategist James Carville, while Obama was "acting calm" and "became more the guy you'd trust in a crisis."
That dramatic week, which culminated in the first McCain-Obama debate, thrust the economy into the forefront of the election — and overshadowed the Arizona Republican's attempts to make experience and proven leadership the keys to a GOP victory.
"The economy was always a driving force" in the 2008 election, conceded Mike DuHaime, McCain's political director. The Wall Street collapse provided "an exclamation point"
As the stock market tanked, McCain was "jumping all over the place," said Democratic strategist James Carville, while Obama was "acting calm" and "became more the guy you'd trust in a crisis."
Polls show that Obama gained significant ground as a "strong leader" in those first days of the financial industry crisis.
"The financial crisis changed him as a candidate," said Democratic pollster Stan Greenberg. "He demonstrated through a series of events a confidence (and) sound judgment. He surged after that, and after all the debates."
Within a month, a two-point McCain lead in the RealClearPolitics average of national polls became a 7- point Obama advantage. Key swing voting blocs swung to the Illinois senator. He made significant — and lasting — gains among Hispanics, Midwesterners, highly educated men, suburban independents and blue-collar voters. And as the economy became more important and Palin became more controversial, "women really surged to Obama," Democratic pollster Celinda Lake said.
The Illinois senator's youthful appeal and optimistic rhetoric helped him dominate the two fastest-growing blocs of voters: the under-30 "Millennials" and Hispanics. Latino voters were pivotal for Obama in new battlegrounds such as Colorado, Nevada, Virginia and North Carolina.
"This is a happy confluence of events for the Democrats," said Ruy Teixeira, a visiting fellow at the Brookings Institution.
"The financial crisis changed him as a candidate," said Democratic pollster Stan Greenberg. "He demonstrated through a series of events a confidence (and) sound judgment. He surged after that, and after all the debates."
Within a month, a two-point McCain lead in the RealClearPolitics average of national polls became a 7- point Obama advantage. Key swing voting blocs swung to the Illinois senator. He made significant — and lasting — gains among Hispanics, Midwesterners, highly educated men, suburban independents and blue-collar voters. And as the economy became more important and Palin became more controversial, "women really surged to Obama," Democratic pollster Celinda Lake said.
The Illinois senator's youthful appeal and optimistic rhetoric helped him dominate the two fastest-growing blocs of voters: the under-30 "Millennials" and Hispanics. Latino voters were pivotal for Obama in new battlegrounds such as Colorado, Nevada, Virginia and North Carolina.
"This is a happy confluence of events for the Democrats," said Ruy Teixeira, a visiting fellow at the Brookings Institution.
Obama's gains were consolidated during the three presidential debates, which viewers — though not all pundits — thought the Democrat had won.
The Illinois senator had plenty of money to spread his message. Obama, who declined federal funding and the spending limits that come with it, raised a record-shattering $600 million through mid-October. McCain, who accepted government money, was limited to $84 million in general election spending.
Obama took advantage of his huge cash advantage to launch a TV blitz in key swing states — and even in a number of historically Republican states. The result was that McCain was forced to defend nearly a dozen states won by George Bush in 2004, while Obama had to protect just one state carried by John Kerry: Pennsylvania. And in seven hotly contested states, Obama aired 83,903 commercials in the month before the election, more than twice McCain's total of 36,070, according to figures compiled by the Nielsen Co.
Obama was aided by a tech-savvy campaign that used modern social networking sites and communications technology to build a community of loyal supporters. The 47-year-old Democrat signed up 2.3 million supporters on Facebook, for example, compared with 608,000 for his 72-year-old opponent.
"He's combined the best elements of mass communication with the best elements of interpersonal communication," said Roderick Hart, director of the Annette Strauss Institute for Civic Participation at the University of Texas at Austin. "They're on the ground. They're on the air. They're everywhere."
Republicans, meanwhile, are sure to debate the flaws of McCain's campaign. Was it his general election campaign that lacked a central theme and veered from tactic to tactic? Was it his selection of Palin, a choice who polls show ended up hurting him? Was it his inability to inspire the conservative Republican base? Was it his age and his emphasis on past accomplishments and historical figures such as Ronald Reagan and Winston Churchill? Or was it inevitable that a Republican would lose amid an economic tempest unprecedented in modern times?
The Illinois senator had plenty of money to spread his message. Obama, who declined federal funding and the spending limits that come with it, raised a record-shattering $600 million through mid-October. McCain, who accepted government money, was limited to $84 million in general election spending.
Obama took advantage of his huge cash advantage to launch a TV blitz in key swing states — and even in a number of historically Republican states. The result was that McCain was forced to defend nearly a dozen states won by George Bush in 2004, while Obama had to protect just one state carried by John Kerry: Pennsylvania. And in seven hotly contested states, Obama aired 83,903 commercials in the month before the election, more than twice McCain's total of 36,070, according to figures compiled by the Nielsen Co.
Obama was aided by a tech-savvy campaign that used modern social networking sites and communications technology to build a community of loyal supporters. The 47-year-old Democrat signed up 2.3 million supporters on Facebook, for example, compared with 608,000 for his 72-year-old opponent.
"He's combined the best elements of mass communication with the best elements of interpersonal communication," said Roderick Hart, director of the Annette Strauss Institute for Civic Participation at the University of Texas at Austin. "They're on the ground. They're on the air. They're everywhere."
Republicans, meanwhile, are sure to debate the flaws of McCain's campaign. Was it his general election campaign that lacked a central theme and veered from tactic to tactic? Was it his selection of Palin, a choice who polls show ended up hurting him? Was it his inability to inspire the conservative Republican base? Was it his age and his emphasis on past accomplishments and historical figures such as Ronald Reagan and Winston Churchill? Or was it inevitable that a Republican would lose amid an economic tempest unprecedented in modern times?
"I think he's run a valiant campaign against great odds," Hart said.
Bottom line: In a year when more than 85 percent of voters said they were looking for change, the son of a Kenyan economics student and a white woman from Kansas offered change, both political and symbolic.
"Obama talks, looks and proposes change on major policy issues," said Houston Democratic consultant Kathryn McNeil. "Nothing McCain spoke to offered real change."
Bottom line: In a year when more than 85 percent of voters said they were looking for change, the son of a Kenyan economics student and a white woman from Kansas offered change, both political and symbolic.
"Obama talks, looks and proposes change on major policy issues," said Houston Democratic consultant Kathryn McNeil. "Nothing McCain spoke to offered real change."
By RICHARD S. DUNHAM
source:Houston Chronicle Washington Bureau
Nov. 4, 2008, 10:59PM
Nov. 4, 2008, 10:59PM
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