Kalen Petersen, Opinion Editor
With the death of longtime dictator Moamar Gadhafi, Libya has a chance to move beyond its troubled past and, like other nations of the Arab Spring, look toward a hopeful future. However, the road to establishing a stable, functional democracy—one which places a high value on human rights—may be a winding one for nations like Tunisia, Egypt and especially Libya.
Libya’s eventual success or failure will be a litmus test for the future of the Middle East. If the fervor of the revolution gives way to a period of tolerance and relative unity among Libya’s 140-plus tribes, then perhaps freedom can flourish in the sands of North Africa and the Arabian Peninsula. On the other hand, if Libya descends into tribal or religious civil war, or if another strongman takes power, the future does not bode well for Middle Eastern democracy.
It is hard to predict how a people with no tradition of self-rule will handle its new-found freedom. After any violent revolution, it is easy for a nation to become over-reactive, channeling the anger once aimed at the former government against peaceful dissenters of the new. History provides many examples of unfortunate aftermaths to popular uprisings, from the Taiping Rebellion to the French Revolution. In many cases, ardent nationalism was an ingredient in the backlash against moderates.
Hopefully, NATO’s involvement in the Libyan revolution will foster a favorable view of the west, diminishing ultra-nationalist sentiment. This could encourage the adoption of some western ideals, including freedom of religion and speech. While Libya’s new system of government will likely be democratic to some extent, there is no guarantee that a secular or moderate Islamic party will assume power. The fear that hardline Islamic militants will be voted into office, as Hamas was in Gaza, is legitimate.
While Gadhafi was a tyrant, murderer and former sponsor of terror, it is true that after 2001 he was cooperative with the U.S. in the war on terrorism, largely out of fear of U.S. military power. It is unclear how helpful the new Libya will be.
In a disturbing scenario, al-Qaeda could find a base of operations and recruitment ground in a Libya run by its sympathizers, or grow stronger amid partisan infighting. Another African nation, the near-anarchic Somalia, provides a grim example of instability as a breeding ground for terrorism. Perhaps the best antidote to radicalization is a stable, moderate government—a remedy that is in short supply in the region. Libya has a chance to surpass its neighbors in this regard.
An important milestone on Libya’s journey will be increasing respect for human rights. A report by Amnesty International has documented some evidence of prisoner abuse by the rebels and observes an environment hostile to black Africans, possibly because Gadhafi used mercenaries from sub-Saharan Africa to fight his battles. It is worrisome that Libya may mirror Afghanistan, which was the subject of a recent U.N. report detailing systematic torture of detainees by police and intelligence agents.
It is also uncertain what effect the Arab spring will have on freedom of religion. Anti-semitism was evident in the Egyptian uprising, a sadly prevalent feeling in the Middle East today. While Libyans clearly want democracy in some form, there is little impetus for the establishment for protections of faith. With a 97 percent Muslim population, Libya must overcome the particular weakness of popular democracy and respect the rights of even tiny minorities.
The birth of a new system of government is rarely simple. Libya and its fellow Arab Spring nations are no exception. However, they now have an opportunity to do something remarkable—to make a modern, free Middle Eastern state more than an idealistic vision. A such a pivotal moment in world history, it would be tragic if they missed that chance.
http://www.utulsa.edu/collegian/article.asp?article=5190
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